How might I estimate how much lithium batteries will cost in a decade? I would like to do an electric car project, but I cannot afford the batteries I would want to use.
I own a 1989 Mitsubishi Starion. It is a four cylinder turbo gt. It is a fun car that I picked up for not much money that I paid in full in cash. I have another car, a 1995 Ford Escort wagon, that I use as my daily driver and my wife uses our 2003 Mazda Protege 5 to drive herself and our daughter around in.
The Starion has the most basic 1980s fuel injection, so I get about mid-20s in fuel economy, because I drive it fairly gently. I pretty much only drive it on short trips because I live in the middle of a city (Charlotte, NC) and rarely have to go very far to get anywhere. Over the last year and a half that I have owned the car, I have put about 1500 miles on the car.
While I am reasonably happy with the car, I have recently been inspired by finding other car owners' build threads wherein they make their cars electrically driven.
In this thread,
a high school student (a very talented one) turns his Honda S2000 into an all-electric car with LOTS of power.
Meanwhile, John Wayland
has created an extremely fast Datsun 1200 on an all-electric drivetrain. His recent quarter mile times have dipped into the 10s, which puts him on a par with exotic sports cars.
What appeals to me is that I could keep the transmission and layout (FR) of my Starion while simply replacing the gasoline motor with an electric motor. The major drawback to electric motors, range, is not a problem for me because I rarely drive my car more than 20 miles one way. In fact, it's currently difficult to keep my oil in good shape because I often take trips that are under 10 miles!
However, the other major drawback to electric cars, at least with the power levels of the two I have linked to, is cost of batteries. The two linked cars were looking for power levels that would equate to 500+ hp and I wouldn't need that, but I would like to keep my current power level (220ish hp and 270ish tq).
A huge amount of the cost in the two linked projects is the industrial grade lithium batteries, and lots of them. The S2000 was estimated to cost the owner $25k + to refit as an electric car. That's way out of my current budget.
So, my question is - what does the cost curve look like for lithium batteries? If I waited and did this project in a decade, is there any reasonable way to estimate what the batteries might cost given how their costs have changed over time so far?
PS - I have just purchased "How to Build an Electric Vehicle" by Seth Leitman and Bob Brant, so when it arrives I will dig into this more.