stealing home

August 21, 2005 5:33 AM

Jackie Robinson stole home 19 times. How in the world can you steal home? How do you steal home the second, third, or nth time since presumably people know you're going to try?
posted by rdr to sports, hobbies, & recreation (32 comments total)

steal

To take (the property of another) without right or permission.
To get or effect surreptitiously or artfully: steal a kiss; stole the ball from an opponent.
To move, carry, or place surreptitiously.
To draw attention unexpectedly in (an entertainment), especially by being the outstanding performer: The magician's assistant stole the show with her comic antics.
Baseball. To advance safely to (another base) during the delivery of a pitch, without the aid of a base hit, walk, passed ball, or wild pitch.

To steal home is to sneak home.
posted by seanyboy at 5:40 AM on August 21, 2005

I believe part of the solution lies in how many other runners were on base when he stole home. If you have a man on first, and he is showing signs of stealing, there is pressure on the pitcher from first that allows Jackie to take a rather large lead off third, especially if the pitcher is a righty. From there I assume what happens is either a throw is made to first to keep the runner honest and Jackie is so far down the line he steals home, or the runner on first steals second and the same thing happens. I'd have to do some serious Google look ups for stats to back this up though. Good question.
posted by spicynuts at 5:41 AM on August 21, 2005

Back in those days, the pitcher would wind up, when a runner was on third and no other runners were in position to steal a base. It was believed back then that a windup helped with a more effective delivery, and there were some elaborate ones.

So he gets a good lead and takes off. . .the catcher has to catch a (maybe) 90mph pitch and then apply a tag. Have you ever tried to catch a ball and tag?. . .not as easy as they make it look. Plus with a right handed batter, another obstacle for the catcher. .

A good way to counter this (if you are a pitcher) is to hit the batter with the pitch, if you can. .dead ball, and (unless bases are loaded) runner back to third.

I am not sure how many time Robinson got tagged out, trying to steal home. . a few, I would guess.
posted by Danf at 7:51 AM on August 21, 2005

What spicynuts describes is usually how it happens lately (at least how I've seen it). The Mets tried this (and succeeded) last week against the Padres; it's called a double steal.
posted by uncleozzy at 7:53 AM on August 21, 2005

you steal home just like you would any other base (more or less). and just like they may know you’re going to try to steal first, they can’t always do anything about it.

according to this article, it is a rare event in baseball these days.

this book excerpt has some more details.
posted by jimw at 7:56 AM on August 21, 2005

Wouldn't a lefthanded pitcher make it easier to steal home, since his back would be to third?
posted by cardboard at 8:03 AM on August 21, 2005

cardboard: I'm pretty sure, due to the tortion and movement of a pitch, that it's easier for a pitcher to turn and throw across himself (towards his back) then to throw to his arm side.
posted by cyphill at 8:15 AM on August 21, 2005

If he sees him, cyphill. Some pitchers are bad at that. I went to a minor league game to see Ben MacDonald back in the day. He was supposed to be the next big thing since he could throw really freaking hard, but he couldn't get his head around baserunners*. There was one play when a guy was starting to steal home while Ben was just getting ready to wind up and the catcher had to stand up, point, and yell at him. I'm pretty sure the steal was successful, since Ben had to throw it home at that point anyway. The point is, if the pitcher is unaware, the runner can start running at the instant the pitcher starts to wind up, if not earlier, and be there shortly after the ball gets to the catcher, who is behind the plate. The catcher may also be frightened of the guy standing in front of him swinging a large bat.

*Also he had a lot of trouble throwing the ball over the plate while not giving up homeruns. He could throw balls or he could give up home runs, but he did it all really fast.
posted by callmejay at 8:29 AM on August 21, 2005

Statistics of Jackie Robinson stealing home. He was out 12 times. Jackie Robinson is the guy who's most famous for stealing home, but eight guys did it more than him; Ty Cobb stole home 54 times.

Picture this. You are standing 90 feet away from your destination. Another guy is standing only 60 feet away from your destination and is about to throw a ball at approximately 90 miles per hour to said destination. If you decide to try to reach your destination, and the ball reaches the destination before you do, you lose everything you have been working so hard to achieve. And if the other guy notices you starting to run to your destination, he is going to throw the ball there even sooner and even harder. And all he has to do to notice you is merely look over his shoulder or be warned by any of his eight friends and tens of thousands of spectators who are watching his back for him. And to top it all off, there is, waiting for you at your destination, another guy of great bulk and girth, wearing some sort of medieval armor, whose fondest desire is to block you off from your destination and knock you into next week in the process.

Why would anyone do it? Well, under the right circumstances, it just might win you the game.

posted by kirkaracha at 9:07 AM on August 21, 2005

Of course, Ty Cobb was probably able to do it so often because the opposing players were terrifed of him.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:09 AM on August 21, 2005

Great quote, kirkaracha!

He was supposed to be the next big thing since he could throw really freaking hard

This really pisses me off. It seems like all anybody cares about these days is the radar gun. A young pitcher can be wild and pretty much useless, but if he throws 98 mph he'll be courted and coddled and given a big contract. His teammate who went 11-0 while throwing junk and baffling batters ends up selling used cars. What's wrong with this picture?

seanyboy, what was the point of that parade of definitions? It's perfectly obvious the poster knows what "stealing" means.
posted by languagehat at 9:32 AM on August 21, 2005

One other thing that helps, the catcher is not poised to make the tag when he is in his crouch behind the plate and he basically can not make a move toward the tag until after the batter has swung if he doesn't want to get hit with the bat. It is still damn near impossible, but a thing of beauty when it works.
posted by caddis at 9:54 AM on August 21, 2005

You ever watch films of Jackie R running? He could steal home twice on a knuckleball or a slow curve thrown from a windup by a righty. The man was lightning. I saw something of that in Soriano in his mid-Yankee years as a baserunner Some quality of being able to slip between the raindrops.
posted by realcountrymusic at 10:18 AM on August 21, 2005

19 steals in 31 attempts? T'would have been better not to try at all.
posted by Kwantsar at 10:35 AM on August 21, 2005

realcountrymusic gave one good reason, it has to be a lot easier to steal home on a knuckleball...

Also, I wonder if there have been any subtle, or not so subtle, changes in the way passed balls, wild pitches, and stolen bases are scored. I mean, if the catcher gets his glove on the pitch but drops it in front of him, I guess that is a passed ball, but who knows. Maybe it is at the scorers digression?
posted by Chuckles at 10:39 AM on August 21, 2005

kwantsar: It isn't only the run, it's the psychological edge gained by doing so. When Robinson, or more often Cobb, were on base they had the pitcher's attention. He couldn't concentrate on the batter or other runners.
posted by ?! at 10:51 AM on August 21, 2005

Kwantsar, that chart looks like it should be awesome, but... How can the expectation for the 1st base, any number of outs, HR be less than 2? Last I checked a HR with one man on base resulted in 2 runs, plus whatever else happens later. I must be reading it wrong, but I really don't get it...
posted by Chuckles at 10:53 AM on August 21, 2005

Okay, I didn't appreciate this:

subtract the run expectancy by base/out

But why don't they include that value in the table? Seems like it would be useful...
posted by Chuckles at 11:01 AM on August 21, 2005

Stealing home was also frequently a "delayed steal" or part of a "delayed double steal." (both are mentioned in Wikipedia article "Stolen base").
posted by cadastral at 11:09 AM on August 21, 2005

danf, some pitchers still do wind up when runners are not in position to steal (except home). Especially in little league and high school, where people are still getting comfortable with the stretch, but you see it in the majors.

To me, there's nothing more crazily exciting than a straight steal of home - and I've never seen it live at a professional game. It's the ultimate convergence in baseball - everything going straight to a point at very high speeds. Also, as a former pitcher who had one person try to steal home on me, I can say it's very distracting, and the possibility of freaking out is high. I was involved in a botched suicide squeeze - the batter missed the ball - but I threw a wild pitch and the runner scored. He was credited with a steal, not having scored on a wild pitch.

(for the record, exciting plays to me:

1 - steal of home
2 - inside-the-park dinger
3 - suicide squeeze
4 - double play)
posted by ORthey at 11:41 AM on August 21, 2005

Kwantsar, I'm not sure I'm reading that chart you pointed to correctly, but it looks like it doesn't take into account steals of home at all. Or at least, it has no values for stolen bases when the only base that could be stolen is home. In general, I would think the value of stealing home is greater than stealing any other base, since stealing home will guarantee you a run, while stealing any other base will not.

And ORthey, I would think a triple play would be more exciting than a double play, but maybe that's just me.
posted by EatenByAGrue at 1:02 PM on August 21, 2005

I've seen the clips of Jackie Robinson stealing home, and in general there were two factors at work:

1. He took an enormous lead off third
2. He only barely got by the catcher.

Most of the time, if a guy steals home, it's because the catcher fucked up and missed a tag. Often this is because of a bad pitch, and often, this is because the pitcher has either fallen behind, or filled the count and thus is exceptionally nervous.

People usually don't steal home; that works to the runner's advantage. If you see someone--particularly a fast someone like Robinson--heading home, and you've already got a guy on second, you have to get the ball to your pitcher now if you want to ensure he'll have enough time to get his balance and get the tag. Throw it hard it enough, but miss by just a little bit, and the ball goes sailing over your catcher... now you've got two runs scored. So for a split second, all that's going through the pitcher's mind is "Don'tfuckupdon'tfuckupdon'tfuckup."

I would think the value of stealing home is greater than stealing any other base, since stealing home will guarantee you a run

The chances of getting picked off would be far greater than your chances of getting there safely. In a one or two run game, losing 3rd base because of a dumb-ass move like stealing home could be catastrophic.

For historical reference, look just how close that Robinson call was. Now, in this image, he's already hauling ass halfway down the line, and the catcher hasn't even noticed. You can't count on that kind of stupidity.

Finally, Ty Cobb has the record for most stolen homes because the guy was an asshole who would drive his spikes into the catcher, causing them to either drop the ball, or run for cover. You try pulling that kind of shit in this day and age, and you'll be thrown from a game.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 1:36 PM on August 21, 2005

And for the record, I agree with Yogi about the '55 World Series G1 call... Robinson was out. But with that much emotion (Dodgers v Yanks), and that kind of play, it couldn't have been ruled otherwise. For you history buffs, here's a quicktime video of the steal. 1955 World Series, Game 1, 8th Inning.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 1:45 PM on August 21, 2005

That video was great! Thanks, C_D!
posted by languagehat at 4:19 PM on August 21, 2005

Oops, I meant:
That video was great! Thanks, C_D!

Damn nonpreview...
posted by languagehat at 4:20 PM on August 21, 2005

ORthey-obviously you know more than I about baseball, but is a double play not only more exciting than a triple (a eatenbyagrue mentioned), but more exciting than that rarest of baseball feats, the unassisted triple play?
posted by TedW at 7:16 PM on August 21, 2005

more exciting than that rarest of baseball feats, the unassisted triple play?

Cool, yes. Most exciting? No way.

Perfect game. That's the most exciting thing to see in baseball. The build-up is so slow and steady, like a flood, you don't even notice something's happening until the 6th or 7th, the crowd gets a little more noisy, of course no one's saying a thing about it, just getting louder, louder, until by the end of the 9th, the crowd sounds like a 747, everyone's sweating every... single... pitch... POP FLY! catchitcatchitcatchit youmotherfucker youbetterfuckingcatchit!, until the pitcher throws the ball for the last time... ERUPTION!... people crying! hugging each other!

Nothing more beautiful in all of sports.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:03 PM on August 21, 2005 [2 favorites]

Civil_Disobedient, I agree that, generally speaking, one's chances of stealing home are much less than one's chances of getting caught stealing (not picked off, as being picked off has nothing to do with stealing a base, except that it's probably easier to pick someone off if he's taking a bigger lead so he can steal). But this is already factored into an individual player's successful steal percentage for an individual base. So while I imagine most player's steal percentage for home would be horrendous, Jackie Robinson's percentage of 19/31 or 61% seems pretty decent to me. (Whether it's high enough to make it worthwhile to steal home is another question.¹)

However, regardless of whether home is harder to steal or not, what I was saying was that the value of a (successful) steal of home is greater than the value of a steal of any other base, since that is the only stolen base that guarantees you a run. (Of course, since in most instances there's a good chance that runner on third will score even if he doesn't steal home, the gain in value for expected runs will be somewhat less than one run.)

¹Using this chart, I figured out how successful a baserunner needs to be to make it worthwhile to steal a given base for every permeation of outs and baserunners (ignoring double steals). (Or in other words, what percentage of steal attempts must succeed in order to make sure the net expected runs will increase after a steal attempt.)

It is worthwhile for a runner to steal second if he can successfully steal second between 73% and 86% of the time, depending on the number of outs and whether other runners are on base.

It is worthwhile for a runner to steal third if he can successfully steal third about 75% of the time, if there are no outs. If there is one out, the percentage decreases to between 70% and 73%, depending on whether there's a runner on first. Finally, with two outs, the percentage increases to 87-89%, depending on whether there's a runner on first.

Where it gets interesting is on steals of home. With no outs, you need at least a 90% success rate. With one out, however, the necessary rate drops to 73-81%, right in line with the necessary rate to steal other bases. And finally, with two outs, you need as little as a 35% success rate (if the only runner is on third) up to a 56% success rate if the bases are loaded. This makes sense because with less than two outs, a sacrifice fly can bring home the runner from third, thus greatly increasing the odds of the runner on third scoring, but not if there are two outs.

So with Jackie Robinson's 61% success rate, he should definitely steal home with two outs, but not otherwise.

(And I realize no one will likely see this, but it was still fun to work on.)
posted by EatenByAGrue at 12:42 AM on August 22, 2005

I saw it.

Quite interesting analysis. It is kind of like a lesson out of Moneyball.
posted by caddis at 7:46 AM on August 22, 2005

And I realize no one will likely see this, but it was still fun to work on.

That was awesome... thanks for crunching the numbers!
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:42 AM on August 22, 2005

I thank you too. That was great.

On the triple play, I agree with C_D: cool but not exciting. Have you actually seen a triple play? I have. Two guys on, batter up, the windup, the pitch, the ball is lined to the infield... and boom, the inning is over. People turn to each other: wha'ppen? If you're watching it on TV, the announcer says "That was a triple play, folks! We'll explain it right after these words from our sponsor." In retrospect, it's fantastic, but the essence of excitement is anticipation, and by the very nature of things there can't be any here.
posted by languagehat at 4:58 PM on August 22, 2005

C_D, languagehat: I just want to make sure you realize I was referring to an unassisted triple play, not just the garden variety. And I'll agree a perfect game could be more exciting in the long run, but I was specifically referring to ORthey's list of exciting plays. C'mon, which would you rather see-a double play or an unassisted triple play? And this has nothing to do with the fact that I am a Braves fan.

What a great thread!
posted by TedW at 7:38 PM on August 22, 2005