April 28, 2011 9:00 PM Subscribe
How do I learn and practice handicapping skills?
posted by pakoothefakoo to Education (7 answers total) 7 users marked this as a favorite
I just got through Buffett's biography, "The Snowball" and the main narrative is that Buffett is a master handicapper.
I'm aware that this area is within the realm of actuarial sciences which includes statistics and probabilities. I've never ventured beyond high school Algebra, but have basic understanding of how probabilities work.
So my question is twofold:
1) What branch of mathematics do I have to learn and how do I work my way up to it from H.S. Algebra. Any good free, guided online resources?
2) How the hell do you handicap reality? How do you assign values to all the possibile outcome in probability space. Like for instance, when people say that there is 1 in 100 chance of a nuclear war, how do they come up that figure? Especially when there is limited historical data.