Goodbye and don't let the rain of shoes hit you on your way out
February 11, 2011 9:07 AM Subscribe
Now that Mubarak has stepped down after weeks of protests, is any other authoritarian governments in the region on the brink of similar civic uprising?
I don't have a good grasp of the politics of the region. I've read briefly about similar protests in the Arab countries such as Yemen and Jordan and even Iraq, but it's difficult to make sense of it. Based on your knowledge of the current conditions the countries, which places are most likely to have a Egypt style regimen change?
I don't have a good grasp of the politics of the region. I've read briefly about similar protests in the Arab countries such as Yemen and Jordan and even Iraq, but it's difficult to make sense of it. Based on your knowledge of the current conditions the countries, which places are most likely to have a Egypt style regimen change?
Saudi Arabia has an aging ruler, an almost-as-aging heir, and (I would have to guess) at least as much simmering popular rage—possibly vastly more. However, they are hardly similar regimes, and AFAIK there have been no indications of impending uprisings—just lots and lots of hand-wringing by the industrialized world about the possible consequences for the oil supply if it were to occur.
posted by AugieAugustus at 9:14 AM on February 11, 2011
posted by AugieAugustus at 9:14 AM on February 11, 2011
Well, the Saudi royal family, and Gaddhafi in Libya have certainly expressed their outrage at the uprisings in no uncertain terms. UAE ruling family has been pretty cautious in its response.
I think all of them are worried, but that it is actually not so easy to predict whether and where the epidemic will spread. May it be swift and wide.
posted by bardophile at 9:33 AM on February 11, 2011
I think all of them are worried, but that it is actually not so easy to predict whether and where the epidemic will spread. May it be swift and wide.
posted by bardophile at 9:33 AM on February 11, 2011
There were a few small protests at universities here in Sudan but nothing came of it.
posted by Gringos Without Borders at 10:06 AM on February 11, 2011
posted by Gringos Without Borders at 10:06 AM on February 11, 2011
Algeria has been mentioned by some of the talking heads I've heard; food riots were going on early last month, though they have since grown to include demands for democracy as well.
posted by Johnny Assay at 10:26 AM on February 11, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by Johnny Assay at 10:26 AM on February 11, 2011 [1 favorite]
Best answer: The Economist wondered the same thing this week and published their Shoe Thrower Index recently. It takes a look at economic factors that might contribute to another civic uprising and ranks countries based on likelihood.
Direct to the Economist
posted by teabag at 10:33 AM on February 11, 2011
Direct to the Economist
posted by teabag at 10:33 AM on February 11, 2011
You should really be checking out The Guardian's Twitter network of Arab protests. In general, Al-Jazeera and the Guardian are good at covering this sort of thing.
Algeria's looked hot for a while now and might well be the next one to go. bardophile is right to look at Saudi Arabia but they might be more entrenched there. Also continue to keep an eye on Yemen and Jordan.
posted by turkeyphant at 11:16 AM on February 11, 2011
Algeria's looked hot for a while now and might well be the next one to go. bardophile is right to look at Saudi Arabia but they might be more entrenched there. Also continue to keep an eye on Yemen and Jordan.
posted by turkeyphant at 11:16 AM on February 11, 2011
Someone's probably typed up a few hundred thoughtful words about this, but having lived in Saudi Arabia and continued to monitor news from there, I doubt this will happen in the land of sand. King Abdullah comes across as relatively moderate and liberal (by Saudi standards), but the relatively conservative forces have power.
Also, it is no accident that King Abdullah's title includes "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques." They have fashioned things so any criticism of the leadership is at least to some extent a criticism of the faith, which doesn't go over so well.
That said, there is what may be a surprising amount of openness in the Saudi press. Newspapers there have been extremely blunt and critical in reacting to flooding problems in Jeddah, the lack of action over the years to address the problems.
Officials and the press have shown some candor in expressing concern about youth unemployment and the need for more private-sector jobs. (Something like 95 percent of the people are employed by the government, which leaders realize is unsustainable.)
It's probably not a coincidence that a leader of one of the country's provinces convened a meeting last week with heads of various departments and told them they must do better in providing services to the residents.
I've read that there have been some very small protests as events have unfolded in Tunisia and Egypt and they've quickly been dispersed.
All that said, these are fluid days and changing times so it's not unfathomable that someone, some people or some incident could strike enough of a nerve to get 100,000 people in the streets of Jeddah, Riyadh, etc. Can't begin to guess what would happen next.
posted by ambient2 at 1:51 PM on February 11, 2011
Also, it is no accident that King Abdullah's title includes "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques." They have fashioned things so any criticism of the leadership is at least to some extent a criticism of the faith, which doesn't go over so well.
That said, there is what may be a surprising amount of openness in the Saudi press. Newspapers there have been extremely blunt and critical in reacting to flooding problems in Jeddah, the lack of action over the years to address the problems.
Officials and the press have shown some candor in expressing concern about youth unemployment and the need for more private-sector jobs. (Something like 95 percent of the people are employed by the government, which leaders realize is unsustainable.)
It's probably not a coincidence that a leader of one of the country's provinces convened a meeting last week with heads of various departments and told them they must do better in providing services to the residents.
I've read that there have been some very small protests as events have unfolded in Tunisia and Egypt and they've quickly been dispersed.
All that said, these are fluid days and changing times so it's not unfathomable that someone, some people or some incident could strike enough of a nerve to get 100,000 people in the streets of Jeddah, Riyadh, etc. Can't begin to guess what would happen next.
posted by ambient2 at 1:51 PM on February 11, 2011
This recent Business Insider article also lists some "who's next" countries along with reasons and links to other articles.
posted by brainmouse at 3:15 PM on February 11, 2011
posted by brainmouse at 3:15 PM on February 11, 2011
If you had posted this question on Jan 24, and referenced Tunisia instead of Egypt -- how many people would have answered "Egypt"? Not many. Revolutions can be predicted generally (they will continue to occur) but not so precisely. If the CIA can't do it, don't expect Ask MeFi to.
posted by LonnieK at 4:16 PM on February 11, 2011
posted by LonnieK at 4:16 PM on February 11, 2011
I don't mean to underestimate the impact of Egypt on the region. Any of the countries mentioned here, and any not mentioned, could go up. Hasten the day!
posted by LonnieK at 4:17 PM on February 11, 2011
posted by LonnieK at 4:17 PM on February 11, 2011
You should also check out the relevant Wikipedia page.
LonnieK: "If you had posted this question on Jan 24, and referenced Tunisia instead of Egypt -- how many people would have answered "Egypt"? Not many."
Really?! You general point is valid but was Egypt really that much of a surprise by then? Tunisia had been on its way for over a month and Egypt was closely behind in the level of popular protests. For example, there had already been at least four self-immolations in Egypt following those in Tunisia and things had been bubbling in Cairo for some time already.
posted by turkeyphant at 5:34 PM on February 11, 2011
LonnieK: "If you had posted this question on Jan 24, and referenced Tunisia instead of Egypt -- how many people would have answered "Egypt"? Not many."
Really?! You general point is valid but was Egypt really that much of a surprise by then? Tunisia had been on its way for over a month and Egypt was closely behind in the level of popular protests. For example, there had already been at least four self-immolations in Egypt following those in Tunisia and things had been bubbling in Cairo for some time already.
posted by turkeyphant at 5:34 PM on February 11, 2011
Not seeing any mention of it, so I'll add that I've heard that Iraq is seeing some disruption based on the Egyptian protests. Al Jazeera link.
posted by Gilbert at 11:32 PM on February 11, 2011
posted by Gilbert at 11:32 PM on February 11, 2011
As a datapoint, among the #Jan25 peeps I've been following on Twitter the last few weeks, Algeria seems to be mentioned most often. That said, no North African or Middle Eastern autocrat should be confidently counting his chickens this month.
posted by mumkin at 12:14 AM on February 12, 2011
posted by mumkin at 12:14 AM on February 12, 2011
It's beginning to look pretty shaky here in Italy.
posted by aqsakal at 12:18 AM on February 12, 2011
posted by aqsakal at 12:18 AM on February 12, 2011
@turkeyphant: I don't recall anybody forecasting a revolution in Egypt as early as Jan 24. (Self-immolations are very far from mass actions). But my point is not Jan 24, or 2 weeks earlier, or 6 months earlier. My point is that you cannot predict where a revolution will erupt.
posted by LonnieK at 3:51 PM on February 12, 2011
posted by LonnieK at 3:51 PM on February 12, 2011
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posted by fairytale of los angeles at 9:12 AM on February 11, 2011