Zenyatta!

November 5, 2010 8:08 AM

Tomorrow, Zenyatta will attempt to win her 20th and final race at Churchill Downs. I am not a gambler, but would like to place some bets to make watching the race more fun. Of course, I wouldn't mind winning some money, too. I'm hoping someone here can give me some strategy tips based on these odds. A friend has suggested placing 12 exacta bets on Zenyatta to win and each of the others to place. The assumption I'm making is that she will indeed win.
posted by Shike to sports, hobbies, & recreation (5 answers total)

I don't know a damned thing about parimutuel betting exact for the names of several of the ways to bet. (For that reason, horse racing and roulette are my two favorite ways to watch someone else gamble.) But still, in spite of (or because of) that, I have a response for you.

One obvious nitpick is that, with 12 horses in the races, you'd only be placing 11 exacta bets, not 12.

Another thing to consider (because I really don't know how it works) is how placing 11 exacta beta with the same winner is better than placing all that money on a simple bet for the winner. Given those odds, say you place a $10 exacta bet on Zenyatta to win and each other to place. What's the best outcome? The worst? What if you just bet $110 on Zenyatta to win?
posted by ymendel at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2010

...parimutuel betting except for the names...

Even missed it on preview.
posted by ymendel at 9:06 AM on November 5, 2010

If you're sure she'll win, you can bet $22 on an exacta like this:
$2 Exacta: 8 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
Bets: 11 Total: $22

Your return is going to be dependant on the final odds of the 2nd place horse, but since you've got the field covered, you'll get some money back if she wins.

A fun bet for us "Low Rollers" is the 10 cent Superfecta, where you try to get the top 4 horses. Based strictly on the morning line odds, you could structure your bet like this:
$.10 Superfecta: 8 / 1,5,12 / 1,2,3,4,5,12 / ALL
Bets: 135 Total: $13.5

Or you could wheel the Superfecta, and structure your bet like this:

$.10 Superfecta Wheel 8,5,12 with 8,5,12, with 8,5,12 with ALL = 54 combinations = $5.40

$.10 Superfecta Wheel 8,5,12 with 8,5,12 , with ALL with 8,5,12 = 54 combinations = $5.40

$.10 Superfecta Wheel 8,5,12 with ALL with 8,5,12 with 8,5,12 = 54 combinations = $5.40

$.10 Superfecta Wheel ALL with 8,5,12 , with 8,5,12 with 8,5,12 = 54 combinations = $5.40

216 bets for $21.60

Don't bet your rent! Good luck!
It'll sure be a fun race to watch.
posted by Floydd at 9:07 AM on November 5, 2010

If you think Zenyatta's going to win, there's nothing really wrong with your friend's suggested strategy. You might want to consider reducing the number of combos though. Dump any horse from the place line if it's over 40/1 at the time you place your bet. Then dump any combination where the will-pay is less than your total cost to place your remaining combos. This might mean you're dumping Blame, who's probably got the best shot at winning if Zenyatta doesn't, and you would recieve some of your money back if he placed. This will still leave you with a bunch of combos, and they're all done if Zenyatta gets boxed in and can't find room to kick.
posted by IanMorr at 9:36 AM on November 5, 2010

$.10 Superfecta Wheel 8,5,12 with 8,5,12 with ALL with 8,5,12 = 54 combinations = $5.40
And we have a winner!
$.10 Superfecta (5, 8, 6, 12) paid $98.00.
posted by Floydd at 9:14 AM on November 8, 2010