What if the DOW crashes and there's inflation at the same time?
August 8, 2010 12:04 PM   Subscribe

If you were to follow Robert Prechter's advice that the DOW is headed for a precipitous drop to triple digits, how could you protect your capital from a possible hyperinflation?

Robert Prechter believes that the DOW is headed for a huge drop and is recommending putting your investment into cash. Part of the reason why he's suggesting this is that he doesn't think the treasury will have enough time to print cash to offset the crash.

But what if the DOW crashes and there's inflation? You may have done the smart thing in removing your money from the stock market, but get burned in that it has half the purchasing power it once did.

So can I have my cake and eat it too? Is there a way of doubly protecting financial resources in this type of climate?

Thanks for any help.
posted by fantasticninety to Work & Money (26 answers total) 5 users marked this as a favorite
 
Do you believe the US government will honor its debts? If so, TIPS, otherwise see Nelson.
posted by themel at 12:11 PM on August 8, 2010


I've done policy research for the past 5 years for a former senior investment banker and economist who "retired" at age 45 to pursue a career in politics. He's wealthy and financially secure. He also says that he's "worried" and so he has moved most of his assets into real estate.
posted by KokuRyu at 12:11 PM on August 8, 2010


The article you linked to seems to provide the answer already: cash. The article also cites several different sources in support of cash.
posted by KokuRyu at 12:14 PM on August 8, 2010


This is an important point too:

Similarly, Larry Berman, who co-founded ETF Capital Management in Toronto and recently ended his term as the president of the technicians association, says he sees a “classic” short-term negative market trend developing now. But he doesn’t use the Elliott Wave theory, saying Mr. Prechter is trying to “measure the market in decades, which is too long a time frame for practical trading purposes or for risk management.”

My economist friend also said that you create and execute a plan over 5 years, but anything beyond that (eg, a decade) is filled with uncertainty.
posted by KokuRyu at 12:16 PM on August 8, 2010


Themel has it correct, I think. The sort of event you're describing would so devastate the world economy that it would be very risky to try and predict which industries or investments would pay off the best. The advice relayed by KokuRyu to invest in real estate is a great example -- if nobody has any money and the money they have is rapidly losing value, why would an illiquid asset with forced carrying costs (taxes, maintenance) be a good investment? Could be, under certain circumstances with certain types of property, but you could easily end up on the wrong side of it without any access to cash.
posted by gabrielsamoza at 12:17 PM on August 8, 2010


he doesn't think the treasury will have enough time to print cash to offset the crash.

seriously - just think about this statement for a moment? Does it make any sense at all? Like at all at all?
posted by JPD at 12:25 PM on August 8, 2010 [11 favorites]


Investing in real estate under this scenario could be dangerous, if you're seeking an appreciation in the asset, or need liquidity for lifestyle or re-investment purposes. But for access to a cashflow from rental operations, it could be a reasonable alternative. The instability in the home ownership market that, as we speak, is causing an upturn in the rental market would inevitably worsen, meaning low vacancy rates and steady income, assuming that you buy real estate in housing as opposed to offices or shopping malls. Your underlying property might be illiquid, and indeed underwater, for along time, of course.

But I'd put my money behind firearms and mass quantities of alcohol.
posted by Gordion Knott at 12:30 PM on August 8, 2010


The only question you need to ask is whether or not you're concerned about the complete breakdown of modern human society.

If you are, buy gold, guns, beans, a farm in the midwest, and several head of cattle and goats. That's your only move.

If you think that humanity as a whole is not an immediately self-destructive pile of idiots, you'll be fine. When the market drops, your continued investments will GAIN you money. They don't call it investing for nothing. When my 401(k) drops, I get a little nervous, but I console myself that I know it will recover and I'm not drawing the money out immediately...so any new money I put in buys MORE stock than if it were high.

If you're not near a retirement age, now is the time to INVEST, not be scared.
posted by carlh at 12:58 PM on August 8, 2010 [5 favorites]


There is nothing wrong with sitting on the sidelines right now. Things are uncertain.

A cash-rich position need not be protected from immediate hyperinflation; perhaps some day, but not in the near future (homes appear to be wobbling again and commercial real estate is effectively in a not-widely-reported slow motion crash that may last for years).

The big problem with cash is where to put it -- above a certain amount, you need to start spreading it around multiple institutions, which gets to be a pain quite quickly.
posted by rr at 1:04 PM on August 8, 2010


I'd be happy if he was wrong about this, as it will hurt so many people, many of whom have toed the line their whole lives and don't deserve the pain they'd be dealt.

However, answering the question, I think the best way to protect your capital would be to make it into something that produces cash actively. One of the best ways of doing that would a company that you are actively involved with. Preferably a service company, not a capital oriented company.

That way, you can raise prices along with the hyper inflation and ride it out, assuming your service company is something people cannot or will not simply drop.

In such a scenario, debt acquired prior to the emergency at a fixed rate would be a relative goldmine. Paying 10, 20, even 50% interest on debt when the real value of the money is decreasing at a greater rate than your interest would be like being paid to borrow.

Additionally, during a hyperinflation scenario, a fixed rate home-mortgage would be worth gold. The house would become essentially free. "I owe $250,000 on my house, that's what I charge for a one-page website. Woo-hoo!" Just make sure your ability to pay the taxes and fees on the place increases along with the hyperinflation, that's what your service company is for.

Hyperinflation has happened quite recently, of course, and it is completely possible. Think about the Argentina scenario, which resulted in this final result: The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 (1992) peso = 100,000,000,000 pre-1983 pesos. (Wikipedia).

Also, firearms and booze. Can't go wrong with firearms in that situation. Don't forget the bullets!
posted by Invoke at 1:09 PM on August 8, 2010


Best answer: Frankly, all of this "hyperinflation" talk is nonsense being perpetuated by people with an agenda. Either they're shilling for gold or they're pushing their political point of view. In any event, they certainly do not have your interests as investor at heart. Everything right now suggests that the primary risk to the global economy is deflationary, not inflationary - and honestly, if your goal is prudent risk management, you should focus on the most probable and damaging threat right now - the threat of a deflationary depression.

If hyperinflation actually happens, there's honestly not much you'll be able to do. Are you really going to buy a gallon of milk with gold bullion? Maintaining good relations with your family, your friends, and your community will be the most useful thing you can do. Leveraging your knowledge and skills will be more important during a time when currency becomes largely useless. Holing yourself up like a hermit with firearms and ammo seems to be a common suggestion, but its a terrible idea. In a hyperinflation scenario, cooperation and bartering become more important than ever. Alienating yourself from your community would probably be a very dumb move.

Like I said, worry about a second depression, not some pie-in-the-sky hyperinflation BS that isn't justified by any of the facts right now. Hyperinflation can be resolved fairly quickly (albeit painfully) with the introduction of new currency and high interest rates. Depressions are much more damaging, much longer lasting, and an order of magnitude more difficult to end.
posted by Despondent_Monkey at 1:11 PM on August 8, 2010 [15 favorites]


If you were to follow Robert Prechter's advice that the DOW is headed for a precipitous drop to triple digits, how could you protect your capital from a possible hyperinflation?

Uh... That's kind of contradictory, isn't it? One of the best ways to protect yourself from hyperinflation is to invest in the stock market. The price of stocks go up when the value of money goes down. The 1970s was a great decade for the stock market.

Other then that, you could buy housing, or that kind of thing. Any assets that rise with the value of the dollar. Gold would be an option

But really, the problem we have now is the opposite of inflation, it's deflation. Money is becoming more valuable and people aren't investing.

In a real hyperinflationary situation, people would be rushing to invest their money so that it could grow as prices rose.
posted by delmoi at 1:34 PM on August 8, 2010


The advice relayed by KokuRyu to invest in real estate is a great example -- if nobody has any money and the money they have is rapidly losing value, why would an illiquid asset with forced carrying costs (taxes, maintenance) be a good investment?
In a hyper inflationary situation people have too much money, which they need to spend right away. It would be a situation where, for example, you would get a raise every week, and your rent would go up every week too.
posted by delmoi at 1:38 PM on August 8, 2010


Part of the reason why he's suggesting this is that he doesn't think the treasury will have enough time to print cash to offset the crash.

Where in the article does it say that?

I believe Mutant has said that he is buying gold and silver, FWIW.
posted by Houstonian at 1:38 PM on August 8, 2010


In a hyper inflationary situation people have too much money, which they need to spend right away. It would be a situation where, for example, you would get a raise every week, and your rent would go up every week too.

Mmm. I'm imagining a situation where the market has tanked, everyone's portfolio has been wiped out, and massive employment reigns. Why would it be advantageous to buy real estate ahead of all this? I can see that people who were in a cash rich situation might want to park their cash in real estate afterwords, but that's not the issue at hand.
posted by gabrielsamoza at 2:02 PM on August 8, 2010


I believe Mutant has said that he is buying gold and silver, FWIW.

This is such a gross oversimplification to the extent that I'm pretty sure it's completely wrong w/r/t the theoretical situation in the question.
posted by griphus at 2:53 PM on August 8, 2010


stoneleigh from the automatic earth has some good writings on these matters.

she argues that deflation is the immediate concern, and warns that gold can be taxed/confiscated/difficult to sell if buyers have no liquidity (although she does suggest holding some)

these recs are from her post entitled 'how to build a lifeboat'
1) Hold no debt (for most people this means renting)
2) Hold cash and cash equivalents (short term treasuries) under your own control
3) Don't trust the banking system, deposit insurance or no deposit insurance
4) Sell equities, real estate, most bonds, commodities, collectibles (or short if you can afford to gamble)
5) Gain some control over the necessities of your own existence if you can afford it
6) Be prepared to work with others as that will give you far greater scope for resilience and security
7) If you have done all that and still have spare resources, consider precious metals as an insurance policy
8) Be worth more to your employer than he is paying you
9) Look after your health!
posted by kimyo at 3:17 PM on August 8, 2010 [1 favorite]


On the subject of inflation vs. deflation, this article is pertinent. Note that Hatzius ended up being right (actually, slightly over-optimistic) on the jobs numbers last Friday.
posted by dephlogisticated at 3:26 PM on August 8, 2010


Response by poster: Just to answer some questions at random (and thanks for all the great answers):

– Prechter thinks that it will be a deflation situation (but I was worried myself about the possibility of putting my investment in cash and there being an inflation situation that means the overall value of my cash goes lower...I don't even know if it's possible for a stock market crash to be combined with inflation but I thought it wouldn't hurt to ask)
– In one of his radio interviews he says that one of the reasons why inflation wouldn't happen is that the treasury couldn't react quickly enough to the emerging crash

Despondent_Monkey, just to be clear, Prechter does not say that hyperinflation would happen. He thinks there will be a deflationary depression. However, I was asking the question (and please note I only used the word "inflation") because one of Prechter's arguments is that by putting your investments in cash it's a safe play. However, naturally I worried that taking all out of the stock market could risk a scenario where if there was inflation I could still get hurt. That's all.

I've got the alcohol stocked, but I'd have to do more research on firearm safety before going down that road:)
posted by fantasticninety at 4:23 PM on August 8, 2010


Best answer: fantasticninety: "But what if the DOW crashes and there's inflation?"

This is, roughly speaking, impossible. In efficient markets the price of a stock is equal to it's time-discounted future earnings. If the DOW were to drop to triple digits, that implies the economy is, in the long term, bringing in 10 percent of the money it used to. In such a scenario, they have no way of bidding up prices the way you'd need for inflation. There's something about the relationship between the productivity frontier and inflation that I should remember but don't.

If you're worried about scenarios concerning the collapse of America, what you should do is consider places where rule of law and the free market will continue to prevail, because owning farmland won't mean much if you have to militarize to protect it. Germany seems relatively stable and market oriented.

But seriously, doom scenarios are pushed out by the guns & ammo groups and the gold salesmen. One way to deal with normal inflation is to ask your boss for a raise, and to price loans higher; if you're worried about a market crash and inflation, I suppose there's nothing better than Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The interest is adjusted against inflation and if DOW crashes money moving out will bid them higher. This is roughly the lesson I should have learned when I saw the 2008 crash coming but didn't know where to go. In times of crises, the world loans their money to America for free.
posted by pwnguin at 5:38 PM on August 8, 2010


There is nothing wrong with sitting on the sidelines right now. Things are uncertain.

no no no no no. This is the worst advice possible. The time to move to the sidelines is when there are AskMeFi posts asking how to get on the stock market gravy train. When people are scared or "uncertain" it is the time to invest.
posted by JPD at 5:51 PM on August 8, 2010


You keep bringing up Robert Prechter. You need to be reading analysis from more than one source. I wouldn't use a single analyst's (somewhat wild) predictions to guide decisions about my life, not to mention my finances.
posted by krinklyfig at 6:26 PM on August 8, 2010


In a hyper-inflationary future, I think the best position would be in tangible, tradeable, necessary goods, i.e. the proverbial beans, bullets, and band-aids.
posted by ob1quixote at 7:09 PM on August 8, 2010


While we're on the subject of putting too much faith in a single source...

kimyo writes:

stoneleigh from the automatic earth has some good writings on these matters.

It's not clear what kind of credentials--if any--Stoneleigh possesses that make her a credible source for historical analysis or prognostication with respect to US fiscal or monetary policy. The only other mention of her that I could find in all of Metafilter is a speaking engagement advertised by kimyo in MeTa.

Caveat lector.
posted by AkzidenzGrotesk at 7:26 PM on August 8, 2010


Delmoi: you would be right about investments being a good place to put your cash - but in a hyperinflationary environment the economic shocks are so great that many businesses will go under. Nobody extends credit (because it's impossible to price it) and suppliers hold on to their goods rather than exchange them for cash. Manufacturing comes to a halt, unemployment surges, liquid assets start to be used instead of cash but the market is flooded and their value starts falling.

If things were really that bad then the only potentially productive investments would be things like real estate. But you should expect to lose a lot of rental income during the crisis. And yes, house prices would fall in real terms - but so would the value of all your other assets.

My opinion is that it's a good idea to contemplate hypothetical crises, but being right five years early is just as expensive as being wrong. Keep alert, keep your wealth diversified, and be flexible. But if there's no crisis - and there probably won't be - you'll be very sorry that you put all your assets in gold and guns.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:52 PM on August 8, 2010


no no no no no. This is the worst advice possible. The time to move to the sidelines is when there are AskMeFi posts asking how to get on the stock market gravy train. When people are scared or "uncertain" it is the time to invest.

Buying counter to sentiment is a fine approach _if_ _done_ _reasonably_. It is a terrible approach at inflection points, and this looks to be one. The market is not reflecting a negative sentiment at this time. Buying right now is buying high -- what, you think they're going to miss out on Dow 20k if they wait a year or two?

Right now, there is nothing worth buying, certainly not for a naive investor like the OP.

(The average person is not fearful of the market, they are fearful of debt. The market -- well, many people may still reeling from the most recent crash, having pulled out prior to the resurgence of the market, but on crappy across the board news the DJI has surged quite substantially.)
posted by rr at 8:27 PM on August 8, 2010 [1 favorite]


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