How can I play devil's advocate?
December 10, 2009 7:26 PM Subscribe
Can you help me with a formula for playing devil's advocate to a pessimistic friend?
My friend and I always end up talking about the end on the world and how eveything's going down the drain. He often pulls out arguments like "200 million soda bottles go into a landfil every hour" and "China opens up a new coal factory every ten days" and "there's a mass of trash the size of Texas floating in the ocean". All these facts may be true, but it's not their factuality that I want to argue. These statements stump me when I hear them and often I end up nodding and saying "well I guess that could be true". And I feel foolish for not being able to counter properly.
Either I want some facts to throw around that make it sound like the world is getting better. Or I want to know a method for arguing against such statements that may point the argument in a more positive direction. Can you teach me any clever argument tricks you know?
I'm female. He's not. We're twenty-something Americans if it matters.
My friend and I always end up talking about the end on the world and how eveything's going down the drain. He often pulls out arguments like "200 million soda bottles go into a landfil every hour" and "China opens up a new coal factory every ten days" and "there's a mass of trash the size of Texas floating in the ocean". All these facts may be true, but it's not their factuality that I want to argue. These statements stump me when I hear them and often I end up nodding and saying "well I guess that could be true". And I feel foolish for not being able to counter properly.
Either I want some facts to throw around that make it sound like the world is getting better. Or I want to know a method for arguing against such statements that may point the argument in a more positive direction. Can you teach me any clever argument tricks you know?
I'm female. He's not. We're twenty-something Americans if it matters.
Maybe facts about how many people are lifted out of poverty and how many diseases we find cures for? For the average person, certainly in first-world countries, now is the best time to be alive out of all or almost all of human history. Half of the home appliances that everyone has such as a dishwasher or clothes washing machine, or the ability to go buy fast food for a pittance for example, are equivalent to being a noble and having servants in most other eras.
posted by XMLicious at 7:34 PM on December 10, 2009 [3 favorites]
posted by XMLicious at 7:34 PM on December 10, 2009 [3 favorites]
And on that note, something that really amused me amongst all of the gnashing of teeth about the global financial crisis is that whereas people in the past had to worry about things like war or famine or plagues coming and killing everyone, nowadays the Grim Reaper takes the form of single-digit economic growth numbers rather than double-digit ones.
posted by XMLicious at 7:38 PM on December 10, 2009 [2 favorites]
posted by XMLicious at 7:38 PM on December 10, 2009 [2 favorites]
Best answer: "You're right. So what are you doing to improve the situation?" Agreement, followed by a question that forces the complainer to make a point beyond complaining, will further the discourse or completely shut it down. Shutting this kind of a rant down, when it's a frequent and pointless occurrence, can be very satisfying.
Tweaking this question a bit, "You're right. So what can we do to improve the situation?" is another way to redirect the conversation from problems to solutions, and is more about continuing a dialogue than ending the conversation. He could say there's nothing anyone can do, but I would pshaw that because if people's actions didn't make a difference, then we wouldn't have ended up in this mess in the first place.
posted by katemcd at 7:38 PM on December 10, 2009 [5 favorites]
Tweaking this question a bit, "You're right. So what can we do to improve the situation?" is another way to redirect the conversation from problems to solutions, and is more about continuing a dialogue than ending the conversation. He could say there's nothing anyone can do, but I would pshaw that because if people's actions didn't make a difference, then we wouldn't have ended up in this mess in the first place.
posted by katemcd at 7:38 PM on December 10, 2009 [5 favorites]
Best answer: We came much closer to the demise of human kind in the middle ages. Disease was rampant, quality of life was non-existent, and similarly there was a lot of "end of times" rhetoric then as well.
And then humans overcame it.
The problems facing society are simply specific to us. World War 2 and the Cold War were far more dangerous than any of the problems facing us today. Yes, Global Warming is a massive problem, but it's also one that is readily fixable with human application. I tend to think eventually the globe's manufacturers hands will be forced into a kind of accountability, it's just it will happen far later than it should have. But make no mistake it will happen. Necessity is the mother of invention, and for right now most people have yet to have their lives impacted by climate change. When they are impacted, things will change. Such is the nature of society. With overpopulation, nations will swell, and eventually contract due to natural (yet horrifying) factors (much like the middle ages).
We have a set of problems specific to us, but we have the means to overcome all of them. Some of these solutions will be relatively permanent and some of these solutions will create a set of problems for the next generation. I worry about problems merely in terms of how we should go about dressing, not whether or not they can be addressed in the first place.
Human beings, like all animals, are designed for survival. Despite the change of earth, warfare, and disease... we will survive in some form. It may be ugly. But human beings at large will survive. It is in our nature.
Remember, apocolypse is an abstract or biblical notion, where downfall is merely a reoccuring societal function, which serves a larger purpose for rebuilding.
Don't confuse the two.
posted by Lacking Subtlety at 7:55 PM on December 10, 2009 [7 favorites]
And then humans overcame it.
The problems facing society are simply specific to us. World War 2 and the Cold War were far more dangerous than any of the problems facing us today. Yes, Global Warming is a massive problem, but it's also one that is readily fixable with human application. I tend to think eventually the globe's manufacturers hands will be forced into a kind of accountability, it's just it will happen far later than it should have. But make no mistake it will happen. Necessity is the mother of invention, and for right now most people have yet to have their lives impacted by climate change. When they are impacted, things will change. Such is the nature of society. With overpopulation, nations will swell, and eventually contract due to natural (yet horrifying) factors (much like the middle ages).
We have a set of problems specific to us, but we have the means to overcome all of them. Some of these solutions will be relatively permanent and some of these solutions will create a set of problems for the next generation. I worry about problems merely in terms of how we should go about dressing, not whether or not they can be addressed in the first place.
Human beings, like all animals, are designed for survival. Despite the change of earth, warfare, and disease... we will survive in some form. It may be ugly. But human beings at large will survive. It is in our nature.
Remember, apocolypse is an abstract or biblical notion, where downfall is merely a reoccuring societal function, which serves a larger purpose for rebuilding.
Don't confuse the two.
posted by Lacking Subtlety at 7:55 PM on December 10, 2009 [7 favorites]
Some people are into the drama of doom and gloom and they like to suck other peolple into it with them. When you try to think of arguments or counterpoints, you're just prolonging the downer fest. You're allowing your friend to dictate the trajectory of the conversation. Next time, try shrugging and saying "Yeah, that sucks," then move on to something completely different. If your friend persists, continue with noncommittal replies. Don't engage. Your friend has every right to wallow in whatever apocalyptic fantasies he wants to, but you don't have to give him permission to try to drag you down with him.
posted by amyms at 9:04 PM on December 10, 2009
posted by amyms at 9:04 PM on December 10, 2009
Instead of just looking at the amount of Bad Thing, consider also the first and second derivatives of Bad Thing as a function of time.
Arguably even more important than the Bad Status Quo is how things are changing. I'm sure the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is increasing in size, but is its rate of growth slowing? China may be building new coal powerplants, but is coal making up a decreasing proportion of new power plants overall? And so on.
So pay attention to the change in the rate of Doing Bad Things -- though Bad Things are still happening, the rate may have stopped increasing. The rate might even start decreasing, or go negative, e.g. vehicle miles travelled in the U.S.
What happens when Bad Thing is not a growth industry? Investment starts to go elsewhere: to production of wind turbines instead of to car parts. More to transit, relatively less to highways. While Bad Things stagnate, Good Things can grow, and reach tipping points, and in turn help reduce the Bad Things.
posted by parudox at 9:04 PM on December 10, 2009
Arguably even more important than the Bad Status Quo is how things are changing. I'm sure the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is increasing in size, but is its rate of growth slowing? China may be building new coal powerplants, but is coal making up a decreasing proportion of new power plants overall? And so on.
So pay attention to the change in the rate of Doing Bad Things -- though Bad Things are still happening, the rate may have stopped increasing. The rate might even start decreasing, or go negative, e.g. vehicle miles travelled in the U.S.
What happens when Bad Thing is not a growth industry? Investment starts to go elsewhere: to production of wind turbines instead of to car parts. More to transit, relatively less to highways. While Bad Things stagnate, Good Things can grow, and reach tipping points, and in turn help reduce the Bad Things.
posted by parudox at 9:04 PM on December 10, 2009
Check out gapminder. Play life expectancy and GDP at PPP per head over time. Try infant mortality. Check out the decline in the percentage of those living below a dollar a day.
Check out Food production per capita from 1961 to 2005.
For the Africa, that many folks regard as having failed have a look at Africa Rising a book by a Prof from India who points out that large chunks of Africa are turning the corner. He points out that in the late 1960s people were saying that India would experience unavoidable mass starvation over the next 20 years. Instead India is now regarded as a country that is going to explode economically.
The big statistics, for people, are often improving.
posted by sien at 9:04 PM on December 10, 2009
Check out Food production per capita from 1961 to 2005.
For the Africa, that many folks regard as having failed have a look at Africa Rising a book by a Prof from India who points out that large chunks of Africa are turning the corner. He points out that in the late 1960s people were saying that India would experience unavoidable mass starvation over the next 20 years. Instead India is now regarded as a country that is going to explode economically.
The big statistics, for people, are often improving.
posted by sien at 9:04 PM on December 10, 2009
Best answer: It sounds like your friend may be feeling really overwhelmed and depressed. I've known quite a few folks like the one you describe. One recently felt so overwhelmed and depressed about these sorts of statistics that he attempted suicide. I like the idea some have posted here about acknowledging that his concerns have merit, and perhaps getting him more solution-focused by asking what "we" (not just he) can do about it.
He is probably used to having people people play devil's advocate, or trying to "cheer him up," and I suspect he receives that as evidence that no one really "gets it," which in itself is depressing and isolating and continues his spiraled thinking.
I tend to envision those kinds of "debates" like a tug-of-war, energetically, with each person trying to make an opposing point, and neither willing to budge. If instead, you acknowledged his concerns and focused on his feelings ("It sounds like you've been giving this a lot of thought. You're feeling pretty overwhelmed/hopeless/depressed/[whatever]?") he might feel like he could let go his grip on the rope for a bit, and maybe even think of some new ideas or a new perspective on his own?
Perhaps a long shot, but I think it's worth a try. I am a little concerned about his mental/emotional state, from what you describe. In any case, best of luck to you.
posted by helixportland at 9:05 PM on December 10, 2009 [1 favorite]
He is probably used to having people people play devil's advocate, or trying to "cheer him up," and I suspect he receives that as evidence that no one really "gets it," which in itself is depressing and isolating and continues his spiraled thinking.
I tend to envision those kinds of "debates" like a tug-of-war, energetically, with each person trying to make an opposing point, and neither willing to budge. If instead, you acknowledged his concerns and focused on his feelings ("It sounds like you've been giving this a lot of thought. You're feeling pretty overwhelmed/hopeless/depressed/[whatever]?") he might feel like he could let go his grip on the rope for a bit, and maybe even think of some new ideas or a new perspective on his own?
Perhaps a long shot, but I think it's worth a try. I am a little concerned about his mental/emotional state, from what you describe. In any case, best of luck to you.
posted by helixportland at 9:05 PM on December 10, 2009 [1 favorite]
"It's all going to hell and falling apart..."
...is easier for our egos to handle than...
"I'm getting old and I will die soon. The world will keep on going without noticing."
posted by rokusan at 1:45 AM on December 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
...is easier for our egos to handle than...
"I'm getting old and I will die soon. The world will keep on going without noticing."
posted by rokusan at 1:45 AM on December 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
David M. Burns' Feeling Good. The New Mood Therapy talks a lot about countering illogical, fruitless and destructive lines of thinking in internal self-talk. Burns' preferred method seems to be close to that of Socrates: the book has many dialogues where the therapist questions the patient's assumptions and thought patterns until the patient has no other choice but to admit that he's being unreasonable.
A self-help book on cognitive behavioral therapy might seem a bit far-fetched until you realize that no number of facts is going to change the way your friend has decided to view the world or the observations he's using to reinforce it. After reading the book I was surprised to find out that many of the people around me were, at times, exhibiting the very same types of thinking that are so common in clinical depression.
posted by Orchestra at 4:07 AM on December 11, 2009
A self-help book on cognitive behavioral therapy might seem a bit far-fetched until you realize that no number of facts is going to change the way your friend has decided to view the world or the observations he's using to reinforce it. After reading the book I was surprised to find out that many of the people around me were, at times, exhibiting the very same types of thinking that are so common in clinical depression.
posted by Orchestra at 4:07 AM on December 11, 2009
There are things that we know that are bad and getting worse. Things like your friend mentions. But technology and science are constantly progressing, and problems of today are not necessarily problems of tomorrow.
Take Malthus, for example. He was an economist who predicted doom and gloom based on increasing populations and the difficulties involved in feeding so many people. What he couldn't have known were the technological advances soon to come like refrigeration, pest control, or advances in agricultural science. And so most of his arguments against overpopulation very quickly became irrelevant.
I'm not saying we should blindly put faith in some upcoming as-of-yet unknown future technology, but there are good reasons to not be so pessimistic and fret too much. If we only consider the knowns (all doom and gloom) and not the unknowns (which possibly include solutions to the doom and gloom) then of course we have a skewed view of the world.
posted by Tooty McTootsalot at 5:46 AM on December 11, 2009
Take Malthus, for example. He was an economist who predicted doom and gloom based on increasing populations and the difficulties involved in feeding so many people. What he couldn't have known were the technological advances soon to come like refrigeration, pest control, or advances in agricultural science. And so most of his arguments against overpopulation very quickly became irrelevant.
I'm not saying we should blindly put faith in some upcoming as-of-yet unknown future technology, but there are good reasons to not be so pessimistic and fret too much. If we only consider the knowns (all doom and gloom) and not the unknowns (which possibly include solutions to the doom and gloom) then of course we have a skewed view of the world.
posted by Tooty McTootsalot at 5:46 AM on December 11, 2009
Best answer: Be careful not to venture into invalidation, which is one of the danger signs of relationship communication. Be a listener first. Reflect what he's saying and validate the feelings. Maybe share your feelings too. I find that creating a safe space for them to vent allows them to come to the "now what can I do about it?" point on their own.
If you and he are Christian (as I am. full disclosure) I take such opportunities to assure them that God is big enough to handle this Himself and in fact has already won, but nevertheless wants us, for our own sake, to take a role in ensuring justice in such situations. It's kind of like making your kid help you clean up the house because it is good for *him* and not because you need his help. In fact, you could probably do it faster on your own, but the kid needs to learn about how much work it is to put caring and love into practice. We're that kid. And the house is a mess.
So I appeal to faith. Faith being doing your part even though the problem seems hopeless; having the courage to act justly without needing to be reassured by tangible results. Most of these problems are way bigger than individuals but must be solved by individuals' choices and sacrifices.
Not Chrisitian? The secular translation would be to understand the concept of systems thinking in the role of creating and solving these types of problems. You and he have roles in these systems and therefore have some influence, albeit not much by yourselves, to wield. The whole "Think Globally, Act Locally" thing.
Christian or secular, systems thinking is a good set of tools to more effectively address these large dysfunctional social problems in that they mostly fall into patterns that have established strategies and leverage points where action can be applied more effectively.
And then also, this is a great opportunity for Tonglen Practice. And you don't have to be Buddhist to benefit from it:
"So on the spot you can do tonglen for all the people who are just like you, for everyone who wishes to be compassionate but instead is afraid, for everyone who wishes to be brave but instead is a coward.
Rather than beating yourself up, use your own stuckness as a stepping stone to understanding what people are up against all over the world.
Breathe in for all of us and breathe out for all of us.
Use what seems like poison as medicine. Use your personal suffering as the path to compassion for all beings."
posted by cross_impact at 5:47 AM on December 11, 2009 [4 favorites]
If you and he are Christian (as I am. full disclosure) I take such opportunities to assure them that God is big enough to handle this Himself and in fact has already won, but nevertheless wants us, for our own sake, to take a role in ensuring justice in such situations. It's kind of like making your kid help you clean up the house because it is good for *him* and not because you need his help. In fact, you could probably do it faster on your own, but the kid needs to learn about how much work it is to put caring and love into practice. We're that kid. And the house is a mess.
So I appeal to faith. Faith being doing your part even though the problem seems hopeless; having the courage to act justly without needing to be reassured by tangible results. Most of these problems are way bigger than individuals but must be solved by individuals' choices and sacrifices.
Not Chrisitian? The secular translation would be to understand the concept of systems thinking in the role of creating and solving these types of problems. You and he have roles in these systems and therefore have some influence, albeit not much by yourselves, to wield. The whole "Think Globally, Act Locally" thing.
Christian or secular, systems thinking is a good set of tools to more effectively address these large dysfunctional social problems in that they mostly fall into patterns that have established strategies and leverage points where action can be applied more effectively.
And then also, this is a great opportunity for Tonglen Practice. And you don't have to be Buddhist to benefit from it:
"So on the spot you can do tonglen for all the people who are just like you, for everyone who wishes to be compassionate but instead is afraid, for everyone who wishes to be brave but instead is a coward.
Rather than beating yourself up, use your own stuckness as a stepping stone to understanding what people are up against all over the world.
Breathe in for all of us and breathe out for all of us.
Use what seems like poison as medicine. Use your personal suffering as the path to compassion for all beings."
posted by cross_impact at 5:47 AM on December 11, 2009 [4 favorites]
Seems like I'm practically obligated to reply to this question.
We eradicated smallpox.
We've nearly eradicated polio.
We closed up the ozone hole.
AIDS is no longer a death sentence. (Less than 30 years after it was identified!)
Many types of cancer are curable.
Lake Erie is clean and beautiful.
Acid rain levels in the US have dropped 65% since 1976. (And the goals of the Clean Air Act, largely responsible for this, were met ahead of schedule and well below their initially estimated cost.)
Etc.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 6:22 AM on December 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
We eradicated smallpox.
We've nearly eradicated polio.
We closed up the ozone hole.
AIDS is no longer a death sentence. (Less than 30 years after it was identified!)
Many types of cancer are curable.
Lake Erie is clean and beautiful.
Acid rain levels in the US have dropped 65% since 1976. (And the goals of the Clean Air Act, largely responsible for this, were met ahead of schedule and well below their initially estimated cost.)
Etc.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 6:22 AM on December 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
I know this type of person, because I was this type of person. You should (a) repeat endlessly that the modern world is an incredible place, that for all of human history all but a tiny fraction of people have endured hardship, disease and suffering, and the fact that a substantial proportion today not only have enough to eat, have shelter and have access to affordable good medicine, but also have modern technological marvels at their disposal such as lightspeed global communication and widespread access to computers that contain the sum of 1000s of years of accumulated knowledge. Is it a shame that only, what, 30% of the world lives this well, that so many still live so terribly, and that there is such a great environmental consequence? Yes. It is a shame, because really, we could do much better. But if you weigh the costs and the benefits of the modern world, and look at things in a historical context, it really should inspire GREAT HOPE. Then you can suggest that (b), since we've come this far, maybe Mr. Gloom And Doom could be inspired to get out of his armchair and channel that energy into acutally accomplishing that whole "we could do much better" part.
posted by molecicco at 6:23 AM on December 11, 2009
posted by molecicco at 6:23 AM on December 11, 2009
Seconding what katemcd said.
posted by jmmpangaea at 7:45 AM on December 11, 2009
posted by jmmpangaea at 7:45 AM on December 11, 2009
Don't argue with your friend.
Either
a) suggest that he bring his concerns down to a local, concrete level and act on them
or
b) take him out for some fun in the big ol' toxic world.
Or both.
If he can't embrace the good with the bad, he's in his head rather than in reality. Get him moving and active and perhaps his perspective will shift.
posted by Paris Elk at 10:04 AM on December 11, 2009
Either
a) suggest that he bring his concerns down to a local, concrete level and act on them
or
b) take him out for some fun in the big ol' toxic world.
Or both.
If he can't embrace the good with the bad, he's in his head rather than in reality. Get him moving and active and perhaps his perspective will shift.
posted by Paris Elk at 10:04 AM on December 11, 2009
In the end, the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist had a better time on the journey.
posted by NoraCharles at 1:38 PM on December 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by NoraCharles at 1:38 PM on December 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
This thread is closed to new comments.
The children now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for
authority, they show disrespect to their elders.... They no longer
rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents,
chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their
legs, and are tyrants over their teachers.
And the Bible has the Book of Revelation. For some reason that I can't pinpoint, evolution has selected for a by-product that adores contemplating doom and gloom.
posted by jefficator at 7:30 PM on December 10, 2009 [2 favorites]