Guess the specifications of a laptop 6 years in the future
May 8, 2009 8:36 AM Subscribe
Hardware nerdfilter: What do you think the specifications of a upper mid-range to high-end laptop computer are going to look like in 6 years from now? 32/22nm generation CPUs with huge cache, fast SSDs, 10GBaseT, 4K HD video output, etc...?
Today I was reading the recent Anandtech article which goes over the benefits and drawbacks of various types of SSD, particularly the cheap MLC design, the new MLC OCZ drive with Indilinx controller versus Intel X-25M and X-25E. The verdict seems to be that Intel is still the king, but that got me thinking... SSD are obviously well suited to portable applications. What's a laptop going to look like in 6 years from now feature-wise?
As a baseline I'm thinking of a current high-end spec available in the 6 pound range, the Aluminum 15" or 17" Macbook Pros. 2.93GHz Core 2 Duo 45nm with 6MB cache, 320GB-500GB HDD, 4GB RAM (with a rather pricey upgrade to 8GB), etc.
Here's my guess for six years from now:
CPU: Whether Intel or AMD, 32nm or 22nm generation CPU with approximately 12MB L2 cache onboard. Unknown clock speed. Performance probably about three times faster than a 2.93GHz Nehalem based architecture. Quad or Octo core. TDP at 20W to 35W depending on clock speed. Full support for all the fun virtualization features.
Memory: Bare minimum 16GB RAM. Guessing raw memory performance about twice the speed of today's DDR3-1600 run at conservative timings. Wouldn't be surprised to see laptops in six years with two 16GB DIMMs installed in a dual channel mode.
SSD: Spinning hard drives will be gone. Something in the 750GB capacity range of SLC or MLC depending on performance needs. Probably about twice as fast as a current Intel X25-E drive.
Wired Network: Gigabit Ethernet will of course be standard but you may see some high end machines with 10GBaseT (for use on cat7) interfaces. 10GBaseT will be about as rare as GigE was when it was first introduced on G4 powerbooks.
Wireless network (LAN): Whatever succeeds 802.11n as a standard. MIMO. 2.4 or 5GHz. Probable real world large file copy performance with good reception in the neighborhood of 120-140Mbps.
Wireless network (WAN): I've no idea. May end up being region specific for US 2.5GHz licenced WiMax networks, and other modular cards for use in Europe and elsewhere. HSDPA/UMTS cards for use with true 4G networks rolled out by GSM carriers, paired with "near-unlimited" monthly data plans.
Other IO: USB 3.0 standard across the board. Bluetooth will still be present. Likely to have onboard embedded 12-channel GPS+WAAS receiver for geolocation services.
Display: No idea. Not sure touchscreens will ever catch on in clamshell format laptops as nobody wants greasy fingerprints all over their laptop. There will probably be some pretty cool 12" size tablets that are thinner and lighter than the Macbook Air, selling for under $1000. Better machines will be capable of driving a 4K HD display. Lesser machines will be similar to today's high-end, to connect a 2560x1600 Displayport/HDMI display.
Video: Performance about double that of a desktop GeForce GTX295 card with 1GB RAM.
DVD/Blu-Ray: Except on consumer level machines, optical drives will be obsolete. Huge spinning physical media that can get easily scratched will be replaced by cheap USB flash drives, or network transfers.
Battery life: We may see more machines using custom-shaped cells with non-trivally swappable batteries similar to the new 17" Macbook Pro. Real world use battery life in the 6 hour range.
Today I was reading the recent Anandtech article which goes over the benefits and drawbacks of various types of SSD, particularly the cheap MLC design, the new MLC OCZ drive with Indilinx controller versus Intel X-25M and X-25E. The verdict seems to be that Intel is still the king, but that got me thinking... SSD are obviously well suited to portable applications. What's a laptop going to look like in 6 years from now feature-wise?
As a baseline I'm thinking of a current high-end spec available in the 6 pound range, the Aluminum 15" or 17" Macbook Pros. 2.93GHz Core 2 Duo 45nm with 6MB cache, 320GB-500GB HDD, 4GB RAM (with a rather pricey upgrade to 8GB), etc.
Here's my guess for six years from now:
CPU: Whether Intel or AMD, 32nm or 22nm generation CPU with approximately 12MB L2 cache onboard. Unknown clock speed. Performance probably about three times faster than a 2.93GHz Nehalem based architecture. Quad or Octo core. TDP at 20W to 35W depending on clock speed. Full support for all the fun virtualization features.
Memory: Bare minimum 16GB RAM. Guessing raw memory performance about twice the speed of today's DDR3-1600 run at conservative timings. Wouldn't be surprised to see laptops in six years with two 16GB DIMMs installed in a dual channel mode.
SSD: Spinning hard drives will be gone. Something in the 750GB capacity range of SLC or MLC depending on performance needs. Probably about twice as fast as a current Intel X25-E drive.
Wired Network: Gigabit Ethernet will of course be standard but you may see some high end machines with 10GBaseT (for use on cat7) interfaces. 10GBaseT will be about as rare as GigE was when it was first introduced on G4 powerbooks.
Wireless network (LAN): Whatever succeeds 802.11n as a standard. MIMO. 2.4 or 5GHz. Probable real world large file copy performance with good reception in the neighborhood of 120-140Mbps.
Wireless network (WAN): I've no idea. May end up being region specific for US 2.5GHz licenced WiMax networks, and other modular cards for use in Europe and elsewhere. HSDPA/UMTS cards for use with true 4G networks rolled out by GSM carriers, paired with "near-unlimited" monthly data plans.
Other IO: USB 3.0 standard across the board. Bluetooth will still be present. Likely to have onboard embedded 12-channel GPS+WAAS receiver for geolocation services.
Display: No idea. Not sure touchscreens will ever catch on in clamshell format laptops as nobody wants greasy fingerprints all over their laptop. There will probably be some pretty cool 12" size tablets that are thinner and lighter than the Macbook Air, selling for under $1000. Better machines will be capable of driving a 4K HD display. Lesser machines will be similar to today's high-end, to connect a 2560x1600 Displayport/HDMI display.
Video: Performance about double that of a desktop GeForce GTX295 card with 1GB RAM.
DVD/Blu-Ray: Except on consumer level machines, optical drives will be obsolete. Huge spinning physical media that can get easily scratched will be replaced by cheap USB flash drives, or network transfers.
Battery life: We may see more machines using custom-shaped cells with non-trivally swappable batteries similar to the new 17" Macbook Pro. Real world use battery life in the 6 hour range.
This post was deleted for the following reason: This is chatfilter. There are a probably a lot of places online where you could have this conversation, but askme isn't one of 'em. -- cortex
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posted by buzzman at 8:52 AM on May 8, 2009