Thanks for your answers and concern. This person is not a close friend so my options to act may be limited.
I meant sensitivity and specificity in the clinical sense--i.e., how many people who have schizophrenia exhibit these ('first-rank') symptoms, and how many people who don't have schizophrenia exhibit them: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_and_specificity. I googled around but didn't find too much of great use and think this might be exactly the kind of topic an expert in the field would be well suited to answer because reading a single paper is not likely to do justice to the topic, which I think is somewhat debated and confusing.
I ask because I have read before of the importance of early intervention in these kinds of situations, but I have no clinical expertise and if it turns out that in large clinical investigations healthy people are sometimes rated as having moderately paranoid or delusional thoughts, or occasionally report hearing voices, then that would diminish my cause for alarm, as I think this individual is otherwise healthy and functionally unimpaired.
I have no evidence of some of the more dramatic symptoms of full-blown psychosis and paranoid schizophrenia, like delusions of reference, wild hallucinations, or patently distorted paranoid thoughts about close friends, relatives, doctors, etc.
Moukas et al. (2009). Relationship of "prodromal" symptoms with severity and type of psychopathology in the active phase of schizophrenia. doi:10.1016/j.comppsych.2009.02.001The best to you and your friend.
Woods et al. (2009). Validity of the Prodromal Risk Syndrome for First Psychosis: Findings From the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. doi:10.1093/schbul/sbp027
Miller et al. (1999). Symptom Assessment in Schizophrenic Prodromal States. doi:10.1023/A:1022034115078
Mason et al. (2004). Risk factors for transition to first episode psychosis among individuals with 'at-risk mental states'. doi:10.1016/j.schres.2004.04.006
Thanks, jeeves, that's exactly the kind of information I was looking for.
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One important aspect of the clinical definition of a delusion involves the fact that it is entirely irrational and cannot be reasoned with. If you can talk with this friend and get him to concede that his theory sounds overblown, highly illogical, un-realistic, etc., then that is a good sign. If he is adamant that this is a true and valid theory, less of a good sign.
The fact that he is hearing voices concerns me even more. Delusions (I think) can come in all shapes in forms and can be stronger or weaker than others. But hallucinations in and of themselves are a clear warning sign for mental illness. I would also like to point out Schizophrenia in males typically onsets in the early to mid-twenties, and your friend falls in this category.
posted by HabeasCorpus at 1:37 PM on April 29