Comments on: No whammies, no whammies

Question: No whammies, no whammies

Blazecock Pileon — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:01:16 -0800

As has been done with previous similar contests, has anyone posted a regression that estimates when Apple will hit the 1B mark on their recent app download contest? (I'm not talking about when Apple's web JS counter is programmed to flip early tomorrow morning.)

By: kaydo

kaydo — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:47:15 -0800

Maybe this?

via @MattYohe

By: eisenkr

eisenkr — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:08:08 -0800

According to lots of sites on the web, the countdown doesn't reflect reality
Supposedly, you can figure out the exact second by just changing your system clock.

By: Blazecock Pileon

Blazecock Pileon — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:36:23 -0800

Maybe this?

Looks good. There's a feed available there with per-hour data derived from Apple's feed.

If the present rate is accurate, the 1B mark may hit between 15 and 26 hours from 9 PM PST tonight (4/22):

          fit        lwr        upr

15  998880906  997717131 1000044680

16  999104312  997934971 1000273653

17  999327719  998152804 1000502633

18  999551125  998370629 1000731621

19  999774532  998588447 1000960616

20  999997938  998806257 1001189619

21 1000221345  999024061 1001418629

22 1000444751  999241857 1001647646

23 1000668158  999459646 1001876670

24 1000891564  999677428 1002105700

25 1001114971  999895203 1002334738

26 1001338377 1000112972 1002563782

Or between about noon and 11 PM tomorrow (4/23). Probably closer to the lower end if downloads pick up. Good luck to everyone who is playing.

By: nomisxid

nomisxid — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:56:24 -0800

It just clocked over on their website.

By: Blazecock Pileon

Blazecock Pileon — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:47:58 -0800

Yep, about 1:45 PM.