No whammies, no whammies

April 22, 2009 9:01 PM

As has been done with previous similar contests, has anyone posted a regression that estimates when Apple will hit the 1B mark on their recent app download contest? (I'm not talking about when Apple's web JS counter is programmed to flip early tomorrow morning.)
posted by Blazecock Pileon to computers & internet (5 comments total)

Maybe this?

via @MattYohe
posted by kaydo at 9:47 PM on April 22

According to lots of sites on the web, the countdown doesn't reflect reality
Supposedly, you can figure out the exact second by just changing your system clock.
posted by eisenkr at 10:08 PM on April 22

Maybe this?

Looks good. There's a feed available there with per-hour data derived from Apple's feed.

If the present rate is accurate, the 1B mark may hit between 15 and 26 hours from 9 PM PST tonight (4/22):

fit lwr upr
15 998880906 997717131 1000044680
16 999104312 997934971 1000273653
17 999327719 998152804 1000502633
18 999551125 998370629 1000731621
19 999774532 998588447 1000960616
20 999997938 998806257 1001189619
21 1000221345 999024061 1001418629
22 1000444751 999241857 1001647646
23 1000668158 999459646 1001876670
24 1000891564 999677428 1002105700
25 1001114971 999895203 1002334738
26 1001338377 1000112972 1002563782

Or between about noon and 11 PM tomorrow (4/23). Probably closer to the lower end if downloads pick up. Good luck to everyone who is playing.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 10:36 PM on April 22

It just clocked over on their website.
posted by nomisxid at 1:56 PM on April 23

Yep, about 1:45 PM.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 2:47 PM on April 23