Exit Polling

November 5, 2004 9:30 AM

The "moral issues" explanation for the 2004 election is clearly based on exit polls. Are these the same exit polls that wrongly projected Kerry winning almost everywhere? Also, where can I find details re: the results of these polls and the actual questions for myself?
posted by probablysteve to law & government (5 comments total)

Exit poll results. Not sure where to get exact questions.

My understanding is that the exit polls that predicted Kerry winning were the early, raw data, not the final data.
posted by claxton6 at 9:41 AM on November 5, 2004

Mystery Pollster provides a good overview of the exit polls.
posted by claxton6 at 9:45 AM on November 5, 2004

I recall reading and hearing a number of things that pertain to your question.

The exit polls sample 100 voters at slightly over 1000 polling places. 100k may seem like a large sample, but you have to remember that it has to predict 51 different races. Supposedly the exit polls were never intended to be predictors and are particularly unsuitable for such close races. The polls are more suited to exactly the sort of questions that you described where they aren't geographically segregated: "What issues were voters concerned with?" Also which demographics voted for whom? Etc...

There was a report that the exit poll reporting system was buggy during the evening when the reports began to swing towards Bush.

Early polling reports may be biased because certain constituencies are more eager or more able to vote during different parts of the day. Maybe not?

Relevant news article
Mystery pollster
posted by stuart_s at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2004

thanks, claxton6. i actually saw that already, but i had not noticed the first time that you are able to filter it by state via those drop down menus at the top.
posted by probablysteve at 11:27 AM on November 5, 2004

The exit polls didn't account for electronic voting machines, clearly.
posted by Space Coyote at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2004