Comments on: How long will this economic crisis last?

Question: How long will this economic crisis last?

hazyspring — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:15:22 -0800

I am looking for articles or blog posts of economists predicting what is going to happen with the economy over the next few years.

I read economics blogs regularly but am wondering if there is a blog compiling this information or if people can point me to some specific excellent articles or blog posts.

I'm specifically looking for predictions on how long the recession will last, how much further the stock market needs to fall, etc. I know I have read these articles, I just never bookmarked them. I really want stuff that is based on factual data and not just an opinion piece.

By: hortense

hortense — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:34:48 -0800

Found on robotwisdom

By: icollectpurses

icollectpurses — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 17:58:33 -0800

This guy is an actual trader and I like the diversity of articles, but they tend to be more finance oriented.

I also read The Street, among others.

I find Fool interesting now and then. Again, a bit more finance/equity investing-oriented.

If a collection of news is what you're looking for, then I suggest that you create a collection of publications that you regularly read as blogs can have subjective opinions that are not trust worthy or accurate. I am personally annoyed and skeptical of blogs for topics like the economy, politics, and foreign affairs.

By: Chris4d

Chris4d — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 19:10:39 -0800

Personally I like naked capitalism.

Economic predictions are all just opinion pieces. I promise. Nobody knows where the economy is going with any degree of accuracy.

By: Chris4d

Chris4d — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 19:13:07 -0800

also, read this. sorry if o/t.

By: yoyo_nyc

yoyo_nyc — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:29:55 -0800

Read. Read. Read and educate yourself.

The crisis was obvious for any person with a clear and critical thinking that connected the dots. A few months before the stock market crash I was rejected for a job at the Boston Consulting Group after I talked about a coming recession. They said I have no understanding of economics... ;-)

Keep an eye on these guys: http://financialtruth0.blogspot.com/

> I'm specifically looking for predictions on how long the recession will last
Impossible to say. I personally expect it to get a little bit better this year but it could take many years, including a economic shift to Eurasia and a meltdown of our FIAT currencies. But let is say this way, I am long in the stock market. "Be greedy when everybody is fearful and be fearful when everybody is greedy!" In the long run I am more concerned about the averaging of the world population. The baby boomers will have to sell one day their stock too.

>how much further the stock market needs to fall
Again, impossible to say. If a stock falls 80% today it can fall another 80% tomorrow :-)

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://sovereignspeculator.com/
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

By: yoyo_nyc

yoyo_nyc — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:32:02 -0800

@Chris4d

> I also read The Street, among others.

Thestreet is a great tool. I personally use Cramer as a contra-indicator. If he is long, go short and vice versa.

By: eclectist

eclectist — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 23:21:31 -0800

I read itulip.com, NPR's Planet Money, and Bloomberg. But I'm totally a pedestrian at this stuff, and a semi-closeted doomer to boot.

By: hazyspring

hazyspring — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 05:08:29 -0800

Thanks for the posts. A number of these blogs, I already read.

I guess my question is, has anyone seen anything SPECIFIC. An article, a blog post, or a paper that has been particularly illuminating. I'm looking for something focused on data, for example, comparing this recession to others, comparisons to Japan, or a comparison to the Great Depression. I'm looking for an analysis of hard numbers, not an opinion piece.

The thing is, I know I've seen one or two of these floating around, but in all of my searches I haven't been able to find very much.

By: wenestvedt

wenestvedt — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 09:52:45 -0800

How about Barry Ritholz? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

By: Caviar

Caviar — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 11:48:21 -0800

An article, a blog post, or a paper that has been particularly illuminating.

You won't be able to recognize which of these is the right one until after the fact.