Feed my information addiction while I'm offline on November 4

October 31, 2008 1:03 PM

I will not have internet access on election night, but really want to be able to follow along--has anyone seen a good cheat sheet?

Many of the sites I've been reading have had a lot of prognostication along the following lines, "If Obama wins states x and y when the first polls close, then McCain needs states a and b. But if McCain gets state x, then the states to watch when the second bunch of polls close are states c and d." Or, "If Obama wins the Kerry states + states x, y, and z, he's in, and McCain needs to win the Bush states plus states a, b, and c." Etc.

I'm looking for something I can print out or download to a non-internet capable laptop that will help me gauge how things are going on Tuesday night.

I'll be glued to the TV, but don't trust them to give me what I need. I'm desperately addicted to 538 and Pollster and the rest, and I need to cope on Tuesday w/o them as best I can.

posted by Mavri to law & government (11 comments total)

Will you have a cell phone and do you have text messaging? I know 538 has been using CredoMobile to deliver text message updates. You could likely find some way of pulling an RSS feed from any website into text message updates as well.
posted by genial at 1:12 PM on October 31, 2008

I feel bad for asking, but why do you feel the need to keep score? I think I'll be heading to bed at my normal time of 10pm (PST), because once I've voted, there's no more I can do. I don't have much time to volunteer, and by my bed time, it's down to counting ballots. While emotional roller-coasters are fun and all, I like sleeping, too.

But back to your inquiry: from a recent 538 post, Colorado and New Mexico look to be going to Obama (with early voters), and 538 then states: "[s]hould New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania." If this holds true, it could be a simple form: "Who took Pennsylvania? _ Obama _ McCain"
posted by filthy light thief at 1:17 PM on October 31, 2008

MSNBC published this guide entitled "How to be the Star at your Election Party." Stupid title but a good summary of some key moments.
posted by proj at 1:44 PM on October 31, 2008 [1 favorite]

Here is a handy spreadsheet a coworker made: http://www.sendspace.com/file/js72cg

This spreadsheet that has the poll closing times in each state (central time) & their EVs.

Notes:

If you put an O or M in Col G, it will automatically put the EVs in the right column (I or J) & add it to the total.

McCain has to essentially run the table of the states marked in Col E.

We should know a lot by 6:30. If Obama has won ANY of these: VA, OH, NC, IN things are in good shape.

PA closes at 7:00. McCain MUST win in order to have any chance.
posted by wearyaswater at 2:18 PM on October 31, 2008 [1 favorite]

It may be easier this year than it would have been in 2000 or 2004, and something you can fairly easily do yourself this time around. The current electoral-vote.com projection already has 264 electoral votes in the "Strong Dem" category. He only needs 6 EVs from any of the other categories to take it. (And even 5 would probably do; in case of a 269-269 tie, the election goes to the House of Representatives, with each state delegation—not each Representative—getting one vote, but that is very nearly certain to be a vote Obama would win.) Assuming he gets all the "Strong Dem" category.

In other words:
Assuming Obama wins CA CT DC DE HI IA IL MA MD ME MI MN NJ NH NM NY OR PA RI VT WA WI (which look very likely from current polling; but if not this gets more complicated), he wins if he gets :

* any one of AZ CO FL GA IN MO MS NC OH VA
* OR any one of NV WV, plus a majority of state delegations to the House of Representatives having a Democratic majority
* OR any two of MT ND NV SD WV.
(considering only states that are not shown as "Strong GOP.")

Oh, and here are the poll closing times. GA, IN, and VA close at 7 p.m. EST; Obama gets any one of those (VA being the most likely) and he's almost certainly in.

If this holds true, it could be a simple form: "Who took Pennsylvania? _ Obama _ McCain"

No, even if McCain wins PA, there's still quite a few other states he'd need to win. For example, if McCain won in PA but Obama still got all the other "Strong Dem" states, Obama could still win with FL alone, or OH plus any one of AZ CO GA IN MO NC VA, or NC+GA, or any three of AZ CO GA IN MO NC VA, among other possibilities.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 2:21 PM on October 31, 2008

filthy light thief: So you can understand the OP and their need for this.... To some of us, this is like the Super Bowl. Watching the returns come in is like watching the game unfold. After all, why watch the Super Bowl? You can always just wait and see the score in the paper in the morning - there's nothing you can do to change the outcome. But most still watch the big game. For some of us, Tuesday night is THE big game!

Mavri, That MSNBC guide that proj posted is a good one. It gives you a good idea of what to watch for early.
posted by Gerard Sorme at 4:28 PM on October 31, 2008 [2 favorites]

wearyaswater writes "Here is a handy spreadsheet a coworker made: http://www.sendspace.com/file/js72cg"

I did this too, which is why I know your friend's poll closing hours are incorrect.

But in answer to the question, McCain to win either has to win all toss-up states, or he has to take Pennsylvania.

Checking out Electoral-vote, we see it gives Obama 264 electoral votes in "strong" Obama states; these states include PA, and of them PA is the only state in which McCain is still making a strong effort.

So if Obama gets those 264, he needs just 6 more votes. Electoral-vote.com assigns four states with a total of 47 electoral votes to "weak" Obama states: OH, VA, and CO each have more than six votes; the remaining "weak" Obama state is NV wih five.

So: either 264 "strong" plus any of OH, VA, or CO takes Obama over the top.

But that's not counting Electoral-vote.com's barely Obama states, FL, NC, and MO, all with more than six votes, or the "barely McCain'" Indiana with 11.

If in the (highly unlikely) event McCain takes PA's 21 electoral votes, then Obama has 243 and needs 27. VA + CO + NV is exactly 27. if PA goes McCain, I'd expect OH to go McCain too, but it's a moot point, as I just can't see McCain overcoming an 11% polling deficit to get a Kerry state.

So here's the tell: if Obama takes PA, you're looking for any of VA or OH or CO or NV, or FL or MC or MO, or IN. If McCain takes PA and doesn't take FL, Obama still wins. So watch PA, where polls close at 8PM EST, and VA (7PM), and FL (7PM but maybe 8PM in the Panhandle) (all times EST).

At 7PM (or whenever the returns come in), if Obama has FL and VA, it's over. If not, if at 8PM (or whenever returns come in), Obama has PA and and one of VA or FL or NC (7:30PM), it's over. If at 8PM Obama hasn't achieved one of these mixes, it's looking like a (but not a sure) McCain upset.
posted by orthogonality at 3:51 AM on November 1, 2008

Nate Silver of 538 discusses likely electoral scenarios in this post.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 1:08 PM on November 2, 2008

And more in this post.

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios [out of Nate's 10000 simulations, McCain won in 624 of them, in this run] that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

Note the most likely McCain victory scenario (169 occurrences) does not have McCain winning PA, so it is possible for him to win without it.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 5:42 AM on November 3, 2008

Thanks everybody! I figured Nate Silver would have something up, but wanted to hedge my bets.
posted by Mavri at 5:54 AM on November 3, 2008

Gerard Sorme - thanks, good analogy. I'm not a fan of sports much, so that's probably some of my dis-connect from the need for a play-by-play (I think of sports as a soap opera, re-telling the same story again and again, with constant changes in the cast ... but I digress).

Another reason I will probably be avoiding TV tomorrow is because I don't want to get too caught up in it emotionally.

To all who chart the progress, keep breathing, and I hope it all turns out well. We'll see soon enough, one way or another.
posted by filthy light thief at 4:16 PM on November 3, 2008