How do I always manage to be looking for a job in the middle of a recession?

September 11, 2008 10:18 AM

How long is this recession (economic downturn?) going to last? Specifically in terms of getting a job.

So I'm unemployed and finding it nearly impossible to get a job. I am continually being told by employers that they are simply not hiring right now. Unfortunately I feel that this problem could persist for some time and I would like to make the most of my unemployment. So when will the job market start to pick up again. I realize this is a nearly impossible question to answer, but any kind of time frame would be helpful. Are we talking 3 months? 6 months? A year? God forbid more than a year? How long do these types of things last. I just graduated from law school, so I'm mostly interested in the legal market, but I'd also be interested in hearing about the general job market.

If it's going to be a long time I'm debating whether to take a second bar and possibly get an internship just so I'm still gaining experience. Or if it'll just be a few months, I'll become a barista at Starbucks and rake in the free lattes. I'm even considering moving somewhere cheaper so that my savings will go further if I'm in this for the long haul.

posted by whoaali to work & money (18 comments total)

Where are you?
posted by Class Goat at 10:31 AM on September 11, 2008

Have you spoken to your Law School career services yet?
posted by chesty_a_arthur at 10:32 AM on September 11, 2008

Profile indicates OP is in DC.
posted by baphomet at 10:33 AM on September 11, 2008

It's a different for lawyers because of the nature of legal hiring and the extent to which the legal economy can lag or lead the general economy.

My take is, it doesn't matter when it will get better.* Keep looking for jobs, keep busy with networking, bar association type stuff, etc. Volunteering and internships are a good idea, but be careful about taking something that will permanently prevent certain kinds of future employment. Working at Starbucks is fine, but some paralegal gig will probably seriously hurt your chances at even the smallest law firms.

* You don't say what kind of jobs you're looking for and what your interests are. Large law firms have been hard-hit, but mostly in capital markets-related work. Since you're probably not looking for jobs in large law firms, it really depends on the kind of work that you want to do. Things aren't that bad for a lot of smaller firms and solo practitioners. Generally, if I had to guess, I would say that 2009 will be an ok year for the legal economy in general, and that 2010 will be pretty good. But it really depends a lot on where you are, what kind of work you are doing and what your credentials are. I don't know DC that well and I'm not sure what kind of non-large firm opportunities there are there.
posted by iknowizbirfmark at 10:40 AM on September 11, 2008

I am a lawyer in Chicago, and occasionally take swipes at the job market. The legal job market has been lousy for awhile, too much supply, reduced demand, however there are still jobs out there. If you are in a city with lots of law schools (i.e. DC, Chicago, NYC) it is going to be tougher. What I did when I was just out was I did legal temping, document review work, which while dull as hell was pretty lucrative, and when one of my temp jobs ended abruptly I volunteered for a legal aid organization until I found a job so I wasn't sitting home fretting about not having a job.

Good luck! You'll find something.
posted by Ponderance at 10:53 AM on September 11, 2008

The good news is that typical recessions last 12-18 months. The bad news - this is not a typical recession.

Here is one respected opinion from Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard:

"At this juncture, the book is still open on the how the current dislocations in the
United States will play out. The precedent found in the aftermath of other episodes
suggests that the strains can be quite severe, depending especially on the initial degree of
trauma to the financial system (and to some extent, the policy response). The average
drop in (real per capita) output growth is over 2 percent, and it typically takes two years
to return to trend. For the five most catastrophic cases (which include episodes in
Finland, Japan, Norway, Spain and Sweden), the drop in annual output growth from peak
to trough is over 5 percent, and growth remained well below pre-crisis trend even after three years."

Three years minimum is not a bad guess. From a stock market point of view, Japan is probably the worst case in recent memory. The Nikkei stock index has yet to reattain the peak it reached in 1989.
posted by storybored at 10:55 AM on September 11, 2008

If you are awaiting your Bar results, as your timeline implies, relax -- it has always been difficult to circulate resumes in the calm between (unemployed) graduation and finding out you passed. This is true as much in good times as in bad. Find a volunteer internship, keep meeting people, and expect to get back into the game when you get your letter in November.

The kind of securities and real estate work which is really dried up these days is not likely the kind of work that you were going to be viable for, so the relevant economic indicators aren't necessarily bad. There's no change in litigation, regulatory or government work, for example.
posted by MattD at 10:55 AM on September 11, 2008

Honestly, it varies depending on your location and your industry. I've turned down half a dozen jobs in the past month. Admittedly I'm in a hot sector/location right now (IT, Calgary Canada), but if you're flexible and willing to move around I don't see any major problems with starting any kind of career.
posted by blue_beetle at 11:01 AM on September 11, 2008

Ignoring specific industries and locations, in general, I'd say many years.
Housing prices are years from getting back to historical norms. The credit meltdown is still unfolding, and the moment that things pick up and money starts to flow again, increased oil consumption will press against the production ceiling again, so oil prices will spike again and crush things back into recession. Global oil consumption is a hair's breadth from maximum possible production with foreseeable infrastructure, so there is a new restriction on the world economy, growing tighter whenever the economy grows faster than oil production can.

So at the pessimistic end of the scale, the good times won't really come again until oil dependence is massively reduced or broken, and that's a decade at least, more likely three.
posted by -harlequin- at 11:10 AM on September 11, 2008 [1 favorite]

barring the unexpected, this recession will never end.

cf. the economic history of 1925-1940 or Japan 1987-now for my basic perspective on the matter.

The financial errors we committed this decade were similar, and so will be workout be.
posted by troy at 11:18 AM on September 11, 2008 [1 favorite]

If you lined up ten trained peer-respected economists, you'd likely get at least five different opinions as to the future of this recession. To expect competent forecasting from the economic illiteratti of Metafilter, sweet cheeses, you might more profitably ask your dog. (one bark = a quarter)

(Cf. Truman's famous one-armed economist)

The fact is, no one, I mean no one, knows how long this recession will last. You know your circumstances. Use your judgment, and be conservative financially.

The legal-market-hiring specific advice, however, appears sound.
posted by mojohand at 11:34 AM on September 11, 2008

I would stay in DC if I were you. The overall job market is pretty stable here, due to government and the related government-consulting market.
posted by waylaid at 11:45 AM on September 11, 2008

Well that was depressing. Yeah I'm in DC, but took the NY bar and am considering taking CA and moving back there. I was sort of hoping that the economy would bounce back after the election, but that's probably just wishful thinking on my part. I'm mostly looking for litigation or international trade work. I'm hoping things turn around when bar results come out, but given that so far my every worst case scenario for getting a job has come true, I'm trying to prepare for the fact it's very possible I will not find anything even then. I guess I'm probably right to prepare for the long haul here. Thanks for everyone's advice and keep it coming.
posted by whoaali at 12:25 PM on September 11, 2008

You should definitely get out there in DC and do some legal volunteering now. You'll learn a lot that you didn't in law school -- maybe even get courtroom experience. And DC is so chock full of lawyers that you might make some good connections while volunteering and get job leads that way.
posted by footnote at 12:33 PM on September 11, 2008

You generally won't get hired in California without being admitted, so there's really no reason to look there now. If you're serious about it, take the February CA bar and wait for your results, but that would mean it will be almost a year before you can get a job. So I don't think that's a good approach.

If you're interested in litigation jobs, keep looking. And start calling and looking very hard as soon as you are admitted (assuming you passed - good luck!). Most firms won't consider someone waiting for bar results for a position, so things are slow right now. Your best strategy is to prepare a ton of resumes and cover letters to send out indicating that you passed the bar as soon as you find out that you did. And, especially for litigators, bar association stuff is your friend. Start attending events involving litigation. Chat people up as much as possible. Many, many people have gotten jobs like that.

Ignore all the serial commenters going on and on about a thirty year recession. Maybe they're right, but that's not going to affect the legal job market that much. In fact, it's probably a good time to find a litigation job in New York, if you want to work there. I'm not as sure about DC. It may be tough to find a job there other than through traditional large firm hiring channels.
posted by iknowizbirfmark at 12:34 PM on September 11, 2008

Call TrakLegal, call Legal Assets, call Law Resources, call Legalsource, call all the temp agencies and THEY WILL staff you on a contract project that will pay from $29-$35/hour and you will still be able to look for a full-time job.
posted by onepapertiger at 1:27 PM on September 11, 2008

I would highly recommend getting involved with bankruptcy law, especially as it pertains to homeownership and tax penalties in various states for committing "jingle mail". This may mean that you have to work as a quasi-paralegal for a year, but this kind of experience may be one of the few growth industries going for the next few years, and you and your experience will quickly be in demand.
posted by Asparagirl at 2:01 PM on September 11, 2008

I know your question was sort of broad, but really, your duration of unemployment has very little to do with the length of the recession per se.

Sure, you may not be able to get a job the traditional way, or anything at all as easily as some of your peers just a few years ago. That does not mean YOU cannot get a job YOUR way. You may be forced to be more creative or flexible than you are prepared for, but that's just the cards you've been dealt. Do not under any circumstances think that because there's a recession you should just sit things out until they improve. Adapt.
posted by dhartung at 10:56 PM on September 11, 2008